Integral Decision Making Process v.0.02

(A model for the decision making process in the forum information system)

History:

v.0.01 16th June 2005

v.0.02 7th September 2006

Last revision: 7th September 2006

1. Introduction

On of the important questions in the forum information system, if not the most important, is the support for quality and effective political decisions. Decision making is the process of generation and evaluation of possible solution, it is the process of choosing between different solutions to a problem. Thus, an important quality of decision making is that it is a process, which lasts a longer or a shorter time and which results with a decision. This definition implies that the process of decision making has two phases: (1) decision preparation and (2) actual decision making.

The integral decision making process (decision making in the broader sense) according to P. Sikavica has two more phases: (3) the phase of decision implementation and (4) the phase of control. In this text my goal is to show that the forum information system must support the model of an integral decision making process as a model of decision making in the information system in order to generate quality and effective decisions.

2. Decision Theory

Decision theory is, as the name implies, a science which deals which decision making. Everyone, be it in private or professional life makes decisions over and over again. Decision making in organizations or professional decision making is in the focus of this text, since political decision making is, as professional decision making outside the private life of individuals.

Theorists from the field of decision theory have developed a whole set of methods and procedures during the XXth and in the beginning of the XXIst century, which should decision making make easier and bring the subjects of decision making (the individuals who make decisions) into a situation which gives them the chance to make the most valuable decision in a specific situation.

The integral decision making process is one of such methods. Going through a set of phases the decision maker uses different methods and procedures which make it easier do decide, and which make it easier to control the implementation of a particular decision.

As I stated before the integral decision making process consists of four phases:

  • Decision preparation
  • Actual decision making
  • Decision implementation
  • Implementation control

3. Decision Preparation

Decision preparation is probably the most important phase of the decision making process. In this phase the decision maker informs his self about the problem and the goals to be attended, possible solutions are generated and evaluated. Thus the decision preparation phase consists of the following subphases:

  • Problem identification (diagnostics)
  • Goals definition (tasks)
  • Information gathering (situation analysis)
  • Generation of possible solutions (variants, versions)
  • Evaluation of all generated solutions

3.1. Problem Identification

Problem identification is the moment of realizing that a problem exists and that there is need for its solvation. An interesting analogy to this subphase is the diagnostic of a disease by a doctor. If the disease diagnostic is wrong, a wrong therapy is going to be applied to the patient, this is why problem identification needs quite some attention and should be fulfilled patiently. In our case, by the informatization of this process, it is necessary to apply a mechanism which will allow the user of the information system to present the identified problem. As this subphase is pretty important, it is necessary that this mechanism relies on TOP principles.

3.2. Goals Definition

The definition of goals an tasks to be addressed is a subphase in which the desired situation is defined. Thus, goals are defined which should be achieved by the implementation of the decision. Every goal consists of definition, a value, and a measure which allow for goal measurement. In our case this means a mechanism which will allow discusion about goals and the desired situation as well as the presentation of the finall concensus.

3.3. Information Gathering

Information gathering is the next subphase. Here it is necessary to gather enough information for quality generation of possible solutions. To this subphase the term critical mass of information is linked which describes a situation in which after a while of information gathering every new information is distracting the decision making process. But, in our case we are dealing with a potentially large information processing capability of a potentially big number of participants, which means that the critical mass is potentially large and shouldn't be taken in to much consideration. For the gathering of information about a problem and possible solutions there should be a good information presentation mechanism.

3.4. Generation of Possible Solutions

The solution generation is the subphase in which different variants of a decision or solution to a problem are generated. In our case we are dealing with group decisions and the following group decision-making techniques are proposed. First there is the famous brain storming where participants through intensive discussion generate a large number of ideas. But, brainstorming functions best when participants are in the physical space where they can easily discuss in a synchronous way. Of course, it is possible for them to discus over a chat-room, but maybe a variant of this technique, the so called idea writing, would be more appropriate. In this variant every participant gets his own piece of paper (or a place on the interface) and writes his idea. Than the papers are sent for one place in a circle of participants. Every participant now writes a new idea on the paper of his predecessor. The ideas of the predecessors are triggers for new ideas of the participants, critics are not allowed. With information technology it is possible to implement this technique in such a way that every participant allways gets an anonymous paper, which would discourage not taking into consideration ideas in interest conflicts. The advantage of this technique lies in the generation of a large number of possible solutions, which in some cases can be considered as a disadvantage. The second proposed method is the Delphi technique. This method is usually used in technology forecasts, and its advantage is that it pushes participants towards concensus. The technique functions in the following way. A moderator (the initiator of the decision) defines a questionare in which he defines the problem and gives some introduction on how the problem could and should be resolved. All participants get the questionare and fill it out. The results of the questionare are statistically processed and used to form a new questionare which is then also forwarded to the participants. This steps are repeated until the result gives a concensus on possible solutions. There are a lot of different techniques, but these two were presented since they are most likely easy to implement into the forum information system, and since they can be used to resolve to essentially different types of problems. The first type (idea writing) are problems where a lot of creativity and a lot of different possible solutions are needed. The second type (Delphi) are problems in which it is hard to achieve concensus and a small number of possible solutions is needed.

3.5. Evaluation of All Possible Solutions

The evaluation of all possible solutions is the next subphase in the decision preparation phase. In this subphase all possible decisions are evaluated according to different criteria which match the tasks and goals defined earlier. There are a lot of different methods for multicriteria decision making (e.g. Elecre, Promethee, Decision Tree, Analytical Hierarchy Process - AHP etc.), which are described in appropriate literature and the Internet. Maybe there isn't need for implementing some of these method directly into the system (since there are a lot of fantastic applications which deal with them), but there is need for implementing mechanisms for presentation of results which these and other methods give.

4. Decision Making

In the phase of decision making one of the previously generated solutions is chosen. In the information system there needs to be a mechanism which will allow a group, which decided to make a decision, to vote on the possible solutions. This is the place where algorithms like AD, SD-2, CLD2 50%+1, +1-0 etc. come into play. Another issue to mention here is that decisions in the informations system are not made (only) globally (i.e. for all information system users) but also locally (e.g. in different projects/organizations and according to filters/views). This means that filter mechanisms must allow the formation of decision groups (e.g. project teams, interest groups, eParties etc.), which will probably tend towards mutual decision making. It is essential that the information system allows the use of such mechanism and that the process of decision making is fully transparent, open and public. The transparency, openness and publicity of decisions makes their legitimation easier.

5. Decision Implementation

The phase of decision implementation is the phase in which the made decision is implemented into reality. Some decisions made on the informations system will probably not be implemented in the system itself and realized through information technology, but still their implementation should be documented on the information system. Other decisions will affect the system (e.g. global administration changes, software update, change of project settings etc.) so there need to be mechanisms implemented which will allow such affection.

6. Implementation Control

In this phase the implementation of the decision is controlled and effects are measured according to goals stated Ind the decision preparation phase. This phase should also be implemented into the information system, which means that there should be a mechanism for measurement and control of stated goals by the decision makers and the decision implementors.

7. Conclusion

The integral decision making process shows very big potential and good characteristics for implementing him into the information system using information technology. Modern expert systems, decision support systems and executive support systems often haven't implemented all phases of this process. Modern groupware system, also aren't focused enough on the process of decision making. All the stated brings us to the need of implementing this process into the information system.

8. References

· Sikavica, P., B. Bebek, H. Skoko, D. Tipurić: Poslovno odlučivanje, II. izmijenjeno i dopunjeno izdanje, Informator, Zagreb, 1999.